Wednesday, October 31, 2007

LATEST POLLS - Presidential Race, Schwarzenegger, Iraq, Iran

Did you watch the Democrat debate tonight? What did you think?

Here are some of the most recent polls pre the debate. It will be interesting to watch any changes because of it.

1) Clinton Wins Republican Women But Loses Democratic Men - Recent Rasmussen Reports polling data shows Clinton attracting an average of 18% support from Republican women. However, there is another side to the gender gap story. The same surveys show that while Clinton is attracting 18% of Republican women, she is losing an average of 20% of Democratic men to the Republicans.

2) But 1/2 of all likely voters would not vote for Hillary according to Zogby.

3) North Carolina: Clinton Even with Giuliani, Thompson, McCain - No Democratic Presidential candidate has won North Carolina's Electoral Votes since Jimmy Carter's victory more than three decades ago. George W. Bush won 56% of the vote and carried the state by double digits in both Election 2000 and Election 2004. But, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows that New York Senator Hillary Clinton might be competitive in the state during Election 2008.

4) Zogby Poll: 50% of Americans would NOT vote for Hillary Clinton

Ohio: Giuliani 45% Clinton 43%

5) The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows a very tight race between Rudy Giuliani 21% while Fred Thompson is the 19%. John McCain moves into third place among the candidates with at 14% of the vote. Mitt Romney's support is back down to 12%, Mike Huckabee reaches double digits for the first time at 10%, and Ron Paul earns the vote from 3%. Bottom line they say: Don't expect Evangelical leaders to rally around Huckabee. You'll probably see a split within the ranks where some go to Huckabee, others go to Romney and maybe Thompson. The way Huckabee will win in Iowa is with hard grassroots campaigning and support.The establishment think Huckabee isn't viable because he doesn't have the organizational strength of a Romney campaign or a Giuliani campaign.


- Speculation is rampant in California that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will challenge liberal Democrat Barbara Boxer for her Senate seat in 2010 – and a new poll has them running neck and neck.

A California Field survey of registered voters released Tuesday showed Schwarzenegger with 44 percent of the votes in a hypothetical election, and Boxer with 43 percent. The rest were undecided.

The poll also showed Schwarzenegger with a favorable job performance rating – 56 percent of respondents said they approve of his performance as governor, and only 23 percent disapprove, with his support coming from a majority of both Republicans and Democrats.

IRAQ - An October 12 CNN poll showed that an increasing number of Americans believe that the situation in Iraq is improving (24% now vs. 17% percent in June). In addition, the poll revealed a 15 point drop in the number of Americans who that believe the situation is worsening (31% now vs. 46% in June). For the full results, please click here.

The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll finds that 43% of Americans now say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror. That's up from 39% a month ago and is the highest level of optimism registered in nearly a year.

IRAN - Zogby: A majority of likely voters - 52 percent - would support a U.S. military strike to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon, and 53 percent believe it is likely that the U.S. will be involved in a military strike against Iran before the next presidential election, Democrats (63 percent) are most likely to believe a U.S. military strike against Iran could take place in the relatively near future, but independents (51 percent) and Republicans (44 percent) are less likely to agree. Republicans, however, are much more likely to be supportive of a strike (71 percent), than Democrats (41 percent) or independents (44 percent).

When asked which presidential candidate would be best equipped to deal with Iran – regardless of whether or not they expected the U.S. to attack Iran – 21 percent would most like to see New York U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton leading the country, while 15 percent would prefer former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and 14 percent would want Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain in charge. Another 10 percent said Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would be best equipped to deal with Iran, while Republican Fred Thompson (5 percent), Democrat John Edwards (4 percent) and Republican Mitt Romney (3 percent) were less likely to be viewed as the best leaders to help the U.S. deal with Iran. The telephone poll of 1,028 likely voters nationwide

There is considerable division about when a strike on Iran should take place – if at all. Twenty-eight percent believe the U.S. should wait to strike until after the next president is in office while 23 percent would favor a strike before the end of President Bush’s term.

(All content taken from the sites of the polling companies mentioned).


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